Goldman Sachs Raises Tesla Q2 Delivery Forecast

Goldman Sachs has raised its second-quarter 2026 delivery estimate for Tesla (TSLA) to 420,000 vehicles, representing a 9.3% increase compared to Q2 2025 when Tesla delivered 384,122 units. The upward revision comes at a time when the broader auto industry is facing a downturn, with Cox Automotive projecting a 2.6% year-over-year decline in industry sales for the quarter.

Forecast Change

Prior to this report, market estimates for Tesla's Q2 deliveries were around 400,000 vehicles. Goldman Sachs did not explicitly state its previous forecast, but the increase to 420,000 signals growing confidence in Tesla's ability to buck the industry trend.

Analyst Rationale

Goldman Sachs analysts cite several factors supporting Tesla's outperformance:

• Sustained strong demand for the Model Y and Model 3.
• Expansion into new markets and selective price cuts.
• Improved supply chain and higher production at Texas and Berlin gigafactories.

Context

The forecast comes after two years of declining Tesla sales, with deliveries falling in 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, automakers like Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) face similar headwinds. Other analysts, such as Bank of America, have more conservative estimates at 405,000 vehicles.

What to Make of It

Goldman Sachs' optimistic view highlights Tesla's potential resilience in a challenging environment. However, investors should watch for actual delivery numbers, expected in early July. Any deviation from the forecast could move the stock.