Goldman Sachs: AI Spending to Boost CapEx Growth in 2026

Goldman Sachs analysts led by Elsie Peng project that AI spending will contribute 2.8 percentage points to measured capital expenditure growth in 2026, with the 'true' contribution estimated at 3.3 percentage points. Consequently, the bank raised its overall CapEx growth forecast for this year to 7.8%, up from 6.5%.

Forecast Details

• AI contribution to CapEx growth: 2.8 ppts (measured), 3.3 ppts (true).
• Overall CapEx growth forecast: 7.8% (vs. 6.5% previously).
• Limited GDP impact: Despite the significant CapEx increase, the payoff for US gross domestic product will be much smaller, according to Peng.

Analyst Rationale

The Goldman team sees massive investments in AI infrastructure (data centers, chips, energy) as the primary driver for the upgrade. However, the overall economic return remains limited in the near term, as much of the spending goes to equipment and software that take time to yield productivity gains.

Context

These forecasts come amid a race among major tech companies to expand AI capabilities, pushing capital expenditure to record levels. However, analysts warn that the gap between spending and return on investment may persist for several years.

What to Make of It

Goldman Sachs' estimates suggest AI is becoming a key driver of capital expenditure, but investors should note that the impact on the broader economy and corporate profits may not be immediate.