Analysis: Can Home Depot Stock Hit $450 by 2028?

According to an analysis by 24/7 Wall St., Home Depot (NYSE:HD) shares could reach $450 by 2028, representing a potential upside of more than 50% from current levels around $300.

The Analysis Rationale

The analysis assumes Home Depot can achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% in earnings per share (EPS) over the next few years. This growth is supported by:

• Stable underlying demand: CEO Ted Decker noted that demand remained relatively similar to fiscal 2025 despite consumer uncertainty and housing affordability pressure.
• Margin expansion: Improved operational efficiency and cost management could boost earnings.
• Share buybacks: The ongoing repurchase program reduces share count, enhancing EPS.

Assuming EPS reaches around $30 by 2028 (from about $15 currently), and applying a P/E multiple of 15x (close to its historical average), the price target becomes $450.

Context

The stock currently trades at a P/E of about 20x, below its historical average of 22x. The analysis assumes valuations normalize as the economy stabilizes.

Other analysts have mixed views: some see headwinds from a slowing housing market, while others believe Home Depot will benefit from increased spending on repairs and maintenance.

Conclusion

This is a mathematical exercise and not a buy or sell recommendation. Investors should consider macroeconomic risks such as a slowdown and interest rate changes before making decisions.