Why do JPMorgan and Pictet think the ECB will cut only once?

Because the economic slowdown is not severe enough and inflation remains above target.

What is the consensus among investors regarding ECB policy?

The consensus bets on a series of rate cuts this year.

JPMorgan, Pictet Break From Pack With ‘One and Done’ for ECB

Q: How might the 'one and done' scenario affect markets?

It could lead to higher European bond yields and a stronger euro, impacting European equities and rate-sensitive sectors.

JPMorgan Asset Management and Pictet expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver only one interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting, a contrarian view against the consensus betting on a series of cuts.

June 7, 2026

2 min read

Source: Bloomberg

JPMorgan Asset Management and Pictet expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver only one interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting on Thursday, a contrarian view against the consensus betting on a series of cuts.

Details

According to a Bloomberg report, asset managers at both JPMorgan and Pictet believe the eurozone economic slowdown is not severe enough to warrant more than one rate cut. They point out that inflation remains above target, limiting the ECB's room for maneuver.

Context

This hawkish stance comes at a time when most analysts and investors expect the ECB to begin a broader easing cycle, including several rate cuts this year. Recent weak economic data have reinforced these expectations.

What It Means for Investors

If the "one and done" scenario materializes, it could lead to higher European bond yields and a stronger euro, impacting European equities and rate-sensitive sectors. Investors should monitor upcoming economic indicators and ECB officials' comments to assess the validity of this scenario.

Frequently Asked Questions

They expect only one rate cut from the ECB, contrary to the consensus betting on multiple cuts.

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This article was rewritten in Wrqti's editorial style based on information from the original source above. Content is informational only — not investment advice.