Mastercard vs. American Express: Why Analysts Favor MA

After both Mastercard (MA) and American Express (AXP) reported Q1 2026 earnings beats, an analyst at 24/7 Wall St. highlights a key difference: Mastercard collects tolls on global commerce without credit risk, while American Express lends directly to consumers, exposing it to rising delinquencies.

Recommendation Change

While no formal rating change was issued, the analyst explicitly recommends buying Mastercard over American Express, calling Mastercard a "risk-free network fee" play with pure margin insulation.

Analyst's Rationale

The analyst notes that Mastercard's model insulates it from credit losses, as it merely processes transactions. In contrast, American Express acts as a lender, making it vulnerable to the current delinquency normalization cycle. With credit card delinquencies at 2.92% and still rising, AmEx's earnings quality is more fragile.

Context

Mastercard reported EPS of $3.68, while American Express posted $3.33. Both exceeded estimates, but the market may reward Mastercard's lower risk profile. Other analysts have mixed views, with some favoring AmEx's premium brand during economic expansions.

What to Make of It

For risk-averse investors, Mastercard appears to offer a safer bet with consistent fee income. However, American Express could outperform in a strong economy. The choice depends on one's outlook for consumer credit health.