What is the expected impact on oil prices?

The revision suggests lower prices in the near to medium term due to increased supplies and a potential surplus.

Are there specific numbers for the new forecasts?

The report did not disclose specific price targets.

Morgan Stanley Lowers Brent Crude Forecast on Hormuz Reopening

Morgan Stanley lowered its Brent crude price forecasts for the remainder of this year and next, attributing the move to a faster-than-expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a shift in market focus toward a potential surplus in 2027.

June 30, 2026

2 min read

Source: Reuters

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) lowered its Brent crude price forecasts for the remainder of this year and next, according to a report from the bank on Tuesday. The revision comes after the Strait of Hormuz reopened faster than anticipated, boosting supply and shifting market focus toward a potential surplus in 2027.

Forecast Details

The report did not specify the new price targets but indicated the adjustment reflects expectations of an oil market surplus by 2027, which would pressure prices.

Analyst Rationale

Morgan Stanley analysts believe the faster reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has restored Iranian and other supplies, easing geopolitical tensions that had supported prices. The looming 2027 surplus is also drawing attention to supply-demand fundamentals.

Context

The revision follows a period of oil price volatility due to Middle East tensions. Other analysts are closely watching supply developments in the region, while markets also monitor OPEC+ production decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Due to a faster-than-expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, boosting supplies, and a shift in focus toward a potential surplus in 2027.

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