Spider-Man Could Rule 2026 Box Office: How Netflix and Disney Benefit

According to Polymarket data, Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads the race for the highest-grossing movie of 2026 with a 54.5% implied probability, far ahead of Avengers: Doomsday (19.5%) and Toy Story 5 (unspecified). This prediction matters not only for movie fans but also for investors holding Netflix (NFLX) and Disney (DIS) shares.

Details

Polymarket's "Highest grossing movie in 2026?" market shows Spider-Man: Brand New Day dominating with a 54.5% chance of winning, while Avengers: Doomsday trails at 19.5%. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the first film in a new trilogy following No Way Home and is expected to be a major hit.

Context

Netflix (NFLX) and Disney (DIS) are closely tied to the entertainment industry. Netflix invests heavily in original content but does not own Spider-Man rights (held by Sony). However, it may benefit from increased general interest in superhero films on its platform. Disney (DIS) owns Marvel Studios, producer of Avengers films, so a successful Avengers: Doomsday would directly benefit Disney. Even if Spider-Man wins, Disney gains from the additional box office revenue these films generate.

What It Means for Investors

For NFLX and DIS investors, a blockbuster like Spider-Man: Brand New Day could boost confidence in the entertainment sector and drive stock prices higher in the short term. However, these are market predictions subject to change, and actual performance depends on factors like film quality and audience reception.